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Playoff Prognosticatin' - Stanley Cup Finals
by Brian Wishnow , Prognosticator Guy

Following a rough outing in the Conference Semifinals, your prognosticator bounced back strong during the Conference Finals. Both picks were dead-on, as the Capitals and Red Wings each advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals by winning Game Six of their series. More notable were four factors your prognosticator predicted/pointed out:

(1) That Dominik Hasek did not provide Buffalo an edge in goal versus Washington's Olaf Kolzig;
(2) That Buffalo's role players couldn't keep scoring against "quality third- round playoff goaltending," and that if Washington would win if they got "...their top gun, Peter Bondra, back healthy and scoring again...";
(3) That "Dallas better hope it wins every game in Reunion Arena, because Belfour DOES NOT WIN in Joe Louis Arena";
(4) That Detroit's forward lines would prove to have too much depth for Dallas to counter.

Also, your prognosticator is sticking by this prediction about the Detroit- Dallas series:

"This series will prove to be the best match up in the playoffs this year. The winner effectively wins the Stanley Cup, after they roll over some flake team from the Eastern Conference. After Detroit defeated Colorado in the Western Conference Finals last spring, almost everyone knew Philadelphia was a far inferior team. Detroit and Dallas are far superior to both of the teams remaining from an Eastern Conference turned on its belly by first- round upsets."

Series                     Prognosticator Said    Actual Result
Buffalo at Washington      Washington, 4-2        Washington, 4-2
Detroit at Dallas          Detroit, 4-2           Detroit, 4-2

That being said, your prognosticator's current postseason record is 8-6.

Stanley Cup Finals

vs.

Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings

Regular season results: 1/11/98 - RED WINGS 2, Capitals 0; 2/1/98 - Red Wings 4, Capitals 2. Edge: Push (2-0-0)

Playoff Results      Washington             Detroit
1st Round            Def. Boston, 4-2       Def. Phoenix, 4-2
2nd Round            Def. Ottawa, 4-1       Def. St. Louis, 4-2
3rd Round            Def. Buffalo, 4-2      Def. Dallas, 4-2

Washington's forward lines were given a tremendous boost against Buffalo when Peter Bondra began to regularly appear on the score sheets again. However, Ron Wilson realistically only has two scoring lines. Both the Bondra- Nikolishin-Zednik and Bellows-Juneau-Oates lines are serious threats to score whenever they step on the ice.

Much like Detroit's semi-final opponent, Dallas, that's the extent of the offense -- the top two lines. Dallas had playoff leadership and much of its best play coming from Guy Carbonneau, Brian Skrudland, and Mike Keane. For Washington to have a chance, veterans Dale Hunter and Esa Tikkanen must make major contributions.

Detroit has the deepest forward lines in the league. Detroit's top three lines of Brown-Fedorov-Kozlov, Holmstrom-McCarty-Yzerman, and Lapointe-Larionov- Shanahan are legitimate number one lines in themselves.

The biggest bonus is the fourth "Grind Line," which has been one of the best lines for the Red Wings thus far in the playoffs, much like they were last year. Draper-Kocur-Maltby not only allow the other lines to rest, but aggressively forecheck, using their speed to pound the opposition with body checks and even score goals.

The forward lines are the biggest mismatch of this series. Edge: Detroit

The Washington Capitals have always been loaded with solid defenseman. Sergei Gonchar is the guy Detroit must keep its eye on, as he is a threat on the rush as well as from the point. His offensive production dropped off severely last round against Buffalo, and he sure seemed to be helmetless a lot sitting in the penalty box. Sergei, when you get penalized, leave your helmet on.

Calle Johansson, Mark Tinordi, and Joe Reekie provide three solid defensive players, while Brendan Witt is a relative newcomer to playoff hockey and hopes to make as few gaffes as possible. However, Johansson did find his jock strap hanging from the MCI Center scoreboard after Jason Woolley deked him out of the District of Columbia in Buffalo's Game 5 victory.

Phil Housley used to be one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL through the late 80's, but has become a bit of a defensive liability lately. Sounds uncannily familiar... Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers had a defenseman in the finals who fit the same description--his name was Paul Coffey.

Detroit sports six defenseman who just don't make many mistakes. Nicklas Lidstrom and Larry Murphy are Detroit's top pairing, and may just be the best one in the entire NHL. Not only do they shut down the opposition with sound defensive play, they quarterback the power play and create a plethora of scoring chances.

The other two pairings are very solid as well. Jamie Macoun and Bob Rouse are grizzled veterans, and were teammates with Toronto squads that went to back- to-back conference finals in 1993 and 1994. The young one, Anders Eriksson, is paired with THE veteran, Slava Fetisov. Sporting the best resume ever for a defenseman, Fetisov, true to playoff form, is playing above expectations.

While the defensive pairs are perhaps on level ground as far as talent is concerned, the Red Wings rearguard has the extra advantage of experience. Five of them played in last season's playoff run to the 1997 Stanley Cup Championship, while Jamie Macoun has been a bonus surprise since his trade deadline acquisition. Edge: Detroit

Olaf Kolzig has been terrific for the Washington Capitals through the first three rounds of the playoffs. Expect his excellence to continue. If the Capitals have any chance of winning, he must continue to fill the net like Godzilla. Detroit WILL OUTSHOOT Washington in EVERY game during the finals.

Kolzig has posted a shutout in Game 4 of all three series so far these playoffs. What makes this even more remarkable is that each Game 4 has been in the oppositions arena, as Washington has had home-ice advantage in all three playoff series'. This time around, Detroit has home-ice advantage, which hasn't meant much during these 1998 playoffs.

Chris Osgood has gotten the job done for the Red Wings this year. After Mike Vernon's trade to San Jose, Osgood was clearly the man this season. His success thus far in the playoffs has been greatly undermined by the microscope placed on three long-distance goals he has allowed. While he did allow one in each series, to Jeremy Roenick/Phoenix, Al MacInnis/St. Louis, and Jamie Langenbrunner/Dallas, he put the goals behind him and always won the next game (or, in the MacInnis case, that game as Brendan Shanahan scored in 2OT).

Kolzig has never been this far in the playoffs before. Then again he had never been to the third round before and it didn't seem to faze him. Osgood led the Wings to the '95 finals but lost to New Jersey, and learned last season from the bench as Mike Vernon earned Conn Smythe honors as MVP in Detroit's Cup win. Edge: Push

Washington's power play, led by Peter Bondra and Calle Johansson, is a very average extra-man attack. The Capitals specialty is penalty-killing, as they led the league during the regular season.

Detroit's power play hasn't lived up to its potential, but has scored in five of its last seven games. It certainly has more talented offensive players to fuel it than does Washington's. Detroit's penalty-killing unit was spectacular against Dallas. The Red Wings killed 29 of 30 Dallas power plays in the Western Conference Finals, while scoring two short-handed goals. Meaning, Detroit scored more often on Dallas' power play than did Dallas. Little wonder Detroit won the series.

Both squads penalty-killing units are excellent. Washington has to capitalize on its power plays in this series to offset the advantage Detroit's forward lines hold over them. Edge: Push

Ron Wilson has his squad in the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in his young coaching career. He has faced a Scotty Bowman team in the playoffs before. In fact, last season, the Red Wings swept Wilson's Anaheim Mighty Ducks in the second round en route to the 1997 Stanley Cup Championship.

Scotty Bowman is entering the Stanley Cup Finals for the 12th time as a coach. Sporting a remarkable 7-4 series record in the Finals, a Bowman win here would tie him with his coaching hero Toe Blake for eight Stanley Cup triumphs as a coach. Edge: Detroit

Ever since the New York Rangers prevailed in seven games over the Vancouver Canucks to win the Cup in 1994, the Stanley Cup Finals have been sweeps. New Jersey over Detroit 4-0, Colorado over Florida 4-0, and Detroit over Philadelphia 4-0. Not this year.

Unlike last year, in which Detroit had better forwards, and lopsided advantages on defense and in goal, this years finals is a more even match-up.

Although Detroit may have a larger advantage on its forward lines versus Washington than it did against Philadelphia, everything else is much closer. Washington's defense is far more capable and less give-away prone than the Flyers were last year. And there is no mystery who will be in the nets for the Capitals. Olie the Goalie is the man for Washington, and it should prove to be a good series.

Unfortunately for Washington, Detroit simply outmatches them. While it took 42 years for the Red Wings to win another Stanley Cup following the 1955 victory, Detroit will win its second consecutive Stanley Cup Championship a little more than a year after the last one. And don't be surprised to see Steve Yzerman win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.

Series Prediction - Prognosticator says: Detroit 4, Washington 2

06-09-98