vs.

The third round of the playoffs was remarkably similar to the previous rounds for your prognosticator. In the Eastern Conference, again the incorrect choice. Philadelphia now has survived three rounds of predicted doom by your prognosticator. In the Western Conference, your prognosticator showed both boldness and brilliance as he called Red Wings 4, Avalanche 2, exactly as it happened. Post-season record: 8-6

Series: Third Round             Prognosticator Said   Actual Result
(5) N.Y. Rangers at (3) Philly  N.Y. Rangers, 4-3     Philadelphia, 4-1
(3) Detroit at (1) Colorado     Detroit, 4-2          Detroit, 4-2

Stanley Cup Finals

(3) Detroit Red Wings at (3) Philadelphia Flyers Regular season results: 1/22/97 - RED WINGS 2, Flyers 2; 1/25/97 - Red Wings 4, FLYERS 1.

Edge: Detroit (1-0-1)

Note: this pair of home-and-home games were profiled by your prognosticator back in January as the Game(s) of the Week.

Playoff Results     Detroit                    Philadelphia
1st Round           Def. (6) St. Louis, 4-2    Def. (6) Pittsburgh, 4-1
2nd Round           Def. (4) Anaheim, 4-0      Def. (2) Buffalo, 4-1
3rd Round           Def. (1) Colorado, 4-2     Def. (5) N.Y. Rangers, 4-1

Philadelphia, it is said, will play a strict dump-and-chase offensive scheme. Their plan is to get the puck past the red line, dump it in, and hopefully use their physical size to grind it out. What everyone seems to be forgetting is Detroit clogs up the center-ice area so well, that the opposition stalls while trying to attack the Detroit zone. Witness what happened to the Colorado Avalanche. One of hockey's most talented offensive teams was bottled up and always had low shot totals. Detroit has more depth on offense than people give them credit for. Paced by the Russians, Detroit has by far the better transition game, creating more odd-man rushes for the Wings, but not allowing them against. Scotty Bowman's fourth line, the grinders have been scoring. When coupled with the Kozlov-Fedorov-Brown(ov), Lapointe-Yzerman-McCarty, and Sandstrom-Larionov-Shanahan, the Red Wings provide scoring depth the Flyers don't quite match. Edge: Detroit

Defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch of this series. While everybody talks about the Flyers' size, they have three of the smallest defenders in the series: Paul Coffey lists at 190 pounds, Janne Niinimaa at 196, and Petr Svoboda at 190. While the effectiveness of big Kjell Samuelsson is still in question, does Philadelphia think it can bank on the defensive abilities of Coffey, Karl Dykhuis, Niinimaa, and Svoboda? Desjardins is solid, but Chris Therien is too inconsistent. Detroit's six-some of Slava Fetisov, Vladimir Konstantinov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse, and Aaron Ward is very well suited to stopping any type of offense Philadelphia throws at them. Detroit has outshot its opponents in every playoff game, thanks in large part to the defensive end of the game, in which Scotty Bowman's club excels. Asssistant coach Barry Smith has forwards committed with the left-wing lock, eliminating almost all odd-man breaks against. Edge: Detroit

Ron Hextall has been to the Stanley Cup finals one time before. In 1987, when his Flyers lost to Edmonton, he was named winner of the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP. This playoff season he began playing only after Garth Snow faltered, and has gotten the job done, going 4-0 for coach Terry Murray. Mike Vernon has been to the Stanley Cup finals three times before. He lost in 1986 to Montreal; in 1989 he won it with Calgary; in 1995, he and the Red Wings were swept by the New Jersey Devils in the finals. Vernon outplayed Grant Fuhr (future HOF'er), Guy Hebert, and Patrick Roy (future HOF'er) to lead the Wings this far, and should the Wings emerge victorious, he earns a one-year contract extension, and will probably take home the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. Hextall has not yet started Game One of a playoff series this year, and if he loses a game, we might see Garth "Shoulders" Snow the next game. Edge: Detroit

As for special teams, each club's power play has underachieved thus far in the playoffs. Philadelphia however, was able to notch key power-play goals in important situations against the Rangers. However, Detroit's penalty killing should even that out. The Wings kept the vaunted Avalanche power play to only two goals on 29 chances. The Flyers penalty kill has a success rate under 80%, surprisingly low for a team still alive in the playoffs. Edge: Push

While Terry Murray has played big Eric Lindros about 30 minutes a night, Scotty Bowman plays all four lines, which was key in three overtime victories over Anaheim. Murray's Flyers have been noted to be a great third-period team, however he shortens the bench in the last period. Detroit plays five of its six defenseman in key situations, with rookie Aaron Ward, who had a rough time clearing his own zone during Game Three against Colroado, being the odd one out. The rest log upwards of 25 minutes per game. Besides, Scotty Bowman is entering the Stanley Cup Finals for the 11th (with a 6-4 record) and possibly last time as a coach, Murray is here for the first time. Edge: Detroit

Series Prediction: Prognosticator says: Detroit 4, Philadelphia 2

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