Eenie, Meenie, Minie, Moe...

Ah, the day after the Draft, and all is right with the world. Chicago is reveling in the glory of selecting the great Jonathan Toews third overall. Toronto is twitterpated with Jiri Tlusty. And Calgary can't believe Leland Irving -- yes, that Leland Irving -- lasted until the 26th pick. For at least one day, every team in the NHL found a superstar.

But there's one important thing to keep in mind... people are idiots.

Stupidity pervades every aspect of life, even the front offices of NHL teams. Being an NHL general manager doesn't mean someone is smart, competent, or even sober. Do you really think all 30 NHL general managers are deserving of their posts? Or that every member of each NHL team's scouting department knows what he's doing?

Not every NHL GM is stupid. Some are dumb. But much as it's impossible to assemble 30 brilliant doctors or teachers or plumbers, it's ridiculous to expect each general manager in the league to execute his job at the highest possible level. For every energetic, sharp newcomer like Pittsburgh's Ray Shero or proven performer like Atlanta's Don Waddell, there's a dozen Mike Milburys eager to prove their ignorance. And that doesn't even account for the insipid sportswriters and supposed draft experts who hail each potential draftee as the second coming of Wayne Gretzky.

Curious to see the accuracy of the prescient prognosticators, I analyzed the first rounds of the past 13 Drafts, dating back to 1993. I grouped the players into the following four categories:

Stars - The best of the best. You don't have to be a 50-goal scorer or a 100-point man to make the cut, just a consistent performer or at least show the potential to develop into one. I stretched the term somewhat to include guys like Nikolai Zherdev, Ryan Whitney, and the Sedin twins. Generous, to be sure, but fair.

Solid - This is where you'll find your steady second- and third-liners. As long as you take a regular shift and you're a dependable contributor, whether it's as a scorer, checker, or defensive defenseman, you'll make the cut. Examples are guys like Ethan Moreau, Brooks Orpik, and Scott Hartnell. It's also where you'll find guys who just missed on stardom, like Bryan Berard and Jocelyn Thibault.

Borderline - The home for guys who bounce between the NHL and the minor-leagues.

Busts - Absolute failures who never made a mark in the NHL. But since it's not really fair to evaluate young players who haven't been given a chance yet, all players from the 2005, 2004, 2003, and 2002 Drafts were labeled as "Undetermined," not Busts.

While Sidney Crosby was the only player from the 2005 Draft to make an impact last season, Gilbert Brule was counted as a solid NHLer since he showed the potential until he got injured.

And I went ahead and called Evgeni Malkin a star even though he hasn't played an NHL game yet. But I've seen him play, and he's got the goods.

The results of my study were somewhat surprising. Basically, NHL front offices are even more inept than I imagined.

From 1993 to 2003, there was a total of 305 players drafted in the first round. Of those 305 players, only 45 are NHL stars. Another 119 are solid NHLers, but it's not like clubs go into the first round of the Draft hoping to find a No. 6 defenseman. They're looking for stars. And they hit the mark a mere 18.3% of the time.

Even if you combine the stars and solid NHLers, teams are only finding success with 53.4% of their first-round picks. Why don't they save a lot of money and just flip a coin or pick names out of a hat?

As mentioned earlier, busts weren't counted for the 2002-2005 Drafts. Yet of the 245 players chosen between 1993 and 2001, a staggering 73 were busts. That means 29.8% of the players taken in the first round on Saturday will likely suck.

Incredibly, the New York Islanders have had the most success in picking first-rounders, finding four stars since 1993. That doesn't really sound like much, but it's the best number in the league. Although, in true Islander fashion, the club traded away three of the four stars, parting with Todd Bertuzzi, Wade Redden, and Roberto Luongo, while somehow managing to keep Rick DiPietro.

The only other teams to produce four first-round stars are Ottawa and Pittsburgh. The Senators struck gold with Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat, Jason Spezza, and Andrej Meszaros. And after nearly a decade of futility, the Penguins are on quite the roll, cashing in on each of their past four picks, grabbing Ryan Whitney, Marc-Andre Fleury, Evegni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby. And that number would be five had I counted Colby Armstrong as a star instead of a solid NHLer.

Of course, it isn't exactly hard to find talent when you're picking first or second every year. Since 1993, nine stars were chosen first overall, including Ed Jovanovski, Joe Thornton, Rick DiPietro, Vincent Lecavalier, Ilya Kovalchuk, Rick Nash, Marc-Andre Fleury, Alexander Ovechkin, and Sidney Crosby.

The second pick has been equally productive, creating nine stars: Chris Pronger, Wade Redden, Patrick Marleau, Daniel Sedin, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Kari Lehtonen, Eric Staal, and Evgeni Malkin.

Between 1993-2001, the top three spots accounted for 14 of the 35 drafted stars. Oddly enough, picks 21 through 27 were almost as bountiful, producing nine stars. Scott Gomez was the only star found with the last pick of the first round, going to New Jersey with the 27th choice in 1998.

Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Nashville, St. Louis, and the N.Y. Rangers are the only five teams to fail to draft at least one star in the first round since 1993. Detroit's struggles are understandable, since the Old Wings are routinely drafting near the bottom of the first round, but how does Chicago manage to butcher its pick year after year? That's hard to do.

When it comes to drafting busts, no one is better than the Washington Capitals, who've completely wasted seven of their first-round picks since 1993. Check out these names: Alexander Kharlamov, Brad Church, Miika Elomo, Alexander Volchkov, Jaroslav Svejkovsky, Kris Beech. Wow, it's like a who's who of suck. The Caps also busted with Nick Boynton in 1997, failing to sign him before the Bruins nabbed him in the 1999 Draft.

Edmonton is next with six busts, including such forgettable names as Nick Stajduhar, Jason Bonsignore, Matthieu Descoteaux, Michel Riesen, Michael Henrich, and Alexei Mikhnov. They're very good.

The main reason why Pittsburgh has been able to stockpile so much talent the past five years is that Craig Patrick was positively pathetic in the first round from 1993 to 1999, dooming the team to perennially pick in the top five. What Penguin fan can forget such notable names as Stefan Bergkvist, Chris Wells, Craig Hillier, Robert Dome, and Milan Kraft?

Winning three Stanley Cups took its toll on New Jersey's first-round success rate, with late picks resulting in Vadim Sharifijanov, Jean-Francois Damphousse, Ari Ahonen, and Adrian Foster.

Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado, Phoenix, and, yes, the N.Y. Rangers have also produced four first-round busts.

Atlanta, Columbus, Minnesota, Ottawa, and Philadelphia are the only five clubs since 1993 to never bust in the first round.

As expected, the last half of the Draft is a breeding ground for busts, with 49 coming between picks 15 and 30. Fifteenth is definitely a position to avoid, boasting six busts. Drafting 23rd has led to five busts.

The one, two, three, and five spots have been immune to busts, but fourth overall has manufactured three, namely Jason Bonsignore, Alexander Volchkov, and Pavel Brendl.

NHL FIRST-ROUND DRAFT HISTORY

               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust    Undetermined
2005             1          1            --         --         28
Stars: Sidney Crosby.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust    Undetermined
2004             3          3             3         --         21
Stars: Alexander Ovechkin, Evegeni Malkin, Andrej Meszaros


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust    Undetermined    
2003             5         16             7         --          2
Stars: Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nikolai Zherdev, 
Dion Phaneuf.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust    Undetermined
2002             5          8             8         --          9
Stars: Rick Nash, Kari Lehtonen, Jay Bouwmeester, Joni Pitkanen, 
Ryan Whitney.  


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust  
2001             2         15             8          5
Stars: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Spezza


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust 
2000             4          9             7         10
Stars: Rick DiPietro, Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Brad Boyes.


              Stars       Solid      Borderline    Bust  
1999*            3         10             5         10 
Stars: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Martin Havlat.
* 28 teams.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust    
1998*            5         13             4          5
Stars: Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay, Robyn Regehr, Simon Gagne, 
Scott Gomez.
* 27 teams. 


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust   
1997*            6          5             4         11       
Stars: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Olli Jokinen, Roberto Luongo, 
Marian Hossa, Brenden Morrow. 
* 26 teams.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust  
1996*            2         10             2         12     
Stars: Marco Sturm, Daniel Briere.
* 26 teams.
   

               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust 
1995*            4         14             2          6
Stars: Wade Redden, Jarome Iginla, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Shane Doan.
* 26 teams.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust 
1994*            3         10             3         10
Stars: Ed Jovanovski, Ryan Smyth, Mattias Ohlund.
* 26 teams.


               Stars      Solid      Borderline    Bust 
1993             6          9             7          4                     
Stars: Chris Pronger, Paul Kariya, Jason Arnott, Jason Allison, 
Saku Koivu, Todd Bertuzzi.
* 26 teams.

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