Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks

I know a lot of people are down on the Ottawa-Anaheim matchup, saying it'll be terrible for TV ratings and such, but what the hell do I care if Joe and Sally America tune in? It's not my dime. My only concern is the game on the ice. And this series should be a beauty.

Anaheim and Ottawa are clearly the two best squads in the NHL. There's no arguing the point. And the Finals rarely feature the two best clubs. Usually one fluke team weasels its way into the mix. You have to go back to 2000-01, when the Colorado Avalanche defeated the New Jersey Devils in seven games, to find a Stanley Cup Finals that boasted two powerhouses on par with Anaheim and Ottawa.

In fact, over the past 20 years, there have only been six Finals where both teams entered as legitimate Cup favorites: 1988-89 Calgary vs Montreal, 1991-92 Pittsburgh vs Chicago, 1994-95 New Jersey vs Detroit, 1996-97 Detroit vs Philadelphia, 1999-00 New Jersey vs Dallas, and 2000-01 Colorado vs New Jersey. So I hope everyone out there appreciates the bounty we're about to receive.

Key Matchup: Ottawa's top line of Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Daniel Alfredsson has been unstoppable, combining for 23 goals and 58 points in 15 games. Heatley leads all playoff scorers with six goals and 21 points. Spezza is second with seven goals and 20 points. Alfredsson ranks fourth with 17 points, but he leads all scorers with 10 goals.

But if there's a team built to stop the talented trio, it's Anaheim. The Ducks have the best checking line in hockey and two Norris Trophy winners on defense. That's why home ice will be huge. Randy Carlyle will have the last change four times, ensuring Spezza's line will see plenty of Samuel Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer, and Travis Moen. The defensive pair really won't matter. Whether it's Chris Pronger and Sean O'Donnell or Scott Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin, either one can get the job done.

I think it's a great matchup for Anaheim. Look at the teams Ottawa has beaten in the playoffs. Pittsburgh didn't have a checking line or anything even resembling a shutdown defenseman. The Devils had a couple gritty guys up front, but absolutely nothing on the back line. And Buffalo rolled four lines, lacking a designated checking unit or brutal blueliners.

This will be the first time Spezza's line faces aggressive, physical checking, and I don't think they're gonna like it. The Ducks are nasty. They're gonna punish the Sens for 60 minutes each and every night. Personally, I think Spezza, Heatley, and Alfredsson will rattle.

Unlike the Sens, the Ducks have two dangerous scoring lines, although neither one is overwhelming. While losing Chris Kunitz to a hand injury weakened the top unit, Teemu Selanne's presence alone will draw plenty of attention.

But will Bryan Murray match Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov against Teemu or the second line of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Dustin Penner? I'm guessing Murray will try to eliminate Selanne and force the kids to beat him, but if Getzlaf's bruising line gets out against the delicate duo of Joe Corvo and Tom Preissing, it could be disaster for the Sens.

Players to Watch: Ottawa must find secondary scoring. I know I say it every round, but there's simply no way the Sens will beat the Ducks unless they get scoring from someone other than Spezza, Heatley, and Alfredsson.

It's a good thing the big line has been rolling, because not many other Sens are lighting the lamp. Paris Hilton has more depth. Dean McAmmond is the next highest scoring forward, owning four goals and seven points. Yes, that's right, Dean McAmmond. Yeah, don't worry, I didn't know he was still in the league either.

Ottawa's blue line has been picking up most of the slack, with Joe Corvo, Wade Redden, and Tom Preissing contributing six goals and 23 points, but I don't know if you want to pin your Stanley Cup hopes to Corvo and Preissing.

This would be a good time for Chris Neil to elevate his game. Neil and Christoph Schubert are going to have to take the body early and often if the Sens are going to stand up to Anaheim's physical onslaught. But Neil also has the ability to put the puck in the net, although you wouldn't know it from his one goal and two assists this postseason. Neil should be watching tapes of Darren McCarty's glory days in Detroit. A similar effort to McCarty's would go a long way to bringing the Cup back to Canada.

At the other end, the Ducks need more out of Andy McDonald. The speedy little center has a mere five goals and seven points this postseason, and three of those goals came in a four-point effort in Game One versus Vancouver. He's pointless in his last four and has just a goal and an assist in his last 10. And we're talking about a guy with 163 points in his last 164 regular-season contests. He's gotta crank it up.

Prediction: Smart money will be on Ottawa. The Senators have been a buzzsaw, and they've got the Great White North in their corner as they try and become the first Canadian team to win the Cup since Montreal in 1993. But a few things bother me about the Sens.

First, Ray Emery is not a Stanley Cup championship goaltender. He's very good, but he's not at that elite level, at least not yet. I still think he'll crack. I have no such fears about Jean-Sebastien Giguere.

Second, I have faith Bryan Murray will somehow find a way to screw this up. He's a loser. Losers lose. It's who they are, it's what they do.

And lastly, I think Spezza, Heatley, and Alfredsson will get shut down. And if they don't score, Ottawa doesn't score.

I love the way the Ducks play hockey. They're old school. They finish checks, they block shots, they crash the net, they compete, they sacrifice... they're what playoff hockey's all about. And they know how to win. If the game is tight late, rest assured, the Ducks will win it.

I also think the long break before the start of the Finals favors Anaheim. The Senators distribute ice time throughout four lines and three defensive pairs, while the Water Fowl rely heavily on four defensemen and three lines. The extra time off will do wonders. And don't underestimate travel. As a Western team, the Ducks are used to lengthy trips.

But it's a good thing Detroit didn't make it to the Finals. They would have had to play without Chris Chelios and Kirk Maltby since Customs laws prohibit taking fruits over the Canadian border.

In the end, I'm not going to believe Bryan Murray, Ray Emery, and Daniel Alfredsson can win a Stanley Cup until I see it. I expect plenty of tight-checking, low-scoring games. And I expect Anaheim to win four of 'em.

Anaheim in five.

Note: When I originally posted this article early this morning, I said the Rangers were Ottawa's second-round opponent when I obviously meant to say the Devils. Thanks to loyal reader Larry Nagel for pointing it out. Editors are for (sunshines).

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