Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference

I didn't really like the format of the Western predictions, so I'm gonna mix it up for the East. And please keep in mind, whenever I make wacky predictions and whatnot, you're only supposed to remember the ones I get right. Forget the ones I get wrong. Remember right, forget wrong. See how that works? Cool.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS (8) vs BUFFALO DONALD TRUMPS (1)

The Islanders certainly made things interesting, clinching their playoff spot on the last day of the season in a shootout after blowing a 2-1 lead in the final second of regulation. Call it spunk. Call it a flair for the dramatic. Call it the kind of inconsistent effort typical of an eighth seed destined to be steamrolled in the opening round.

New York has been spreading out its offense. Alexei Yashin, Miroslav Satan, and Viktor Kozlov work together on the top line, face-off specialist Mike Sillinger centers Ryan Smyth and Trent Hunter on the second, and Jason Blake, the club's leading goal-scorer (40), anchors a third unit with Randy Robitaille in the middle and Aaron Asham on right wing.

Yashin, Satan, and Kozlov have made a habit of disappearing come playoff time, combining for 25 goals, 63 points, and a minus-22 in 103 career postseason games. Blake is even worse, logging two goals, four points, and a minus-6 in 19 career playoff contests. And if Islander fans are thinking Smyth will be their savior, think again. Good ol' Captain Canada had 22 goals and 43 points in 68 postseason appearances with the Oilers. The point of all this is New York's offense blows.

In comparison, Buffalo can roll out three potent scoring lines. The top unit will likely feature Daniel Briere between Jason Pominville and Jochen Hecht, followed by Chris Drury-Dainius Zubrus-Ales Kotalik, and Derek Roy-Maxim Afinogenov-Tomas Vanek. The return of Tim Connolly only adds to the embarrassment of riches.

Buffalo's defense is just as deep, featuring Brian Campbell, Jaroslav Spacek, Henrik Tallinder, Toni Lydman, Dmitri Kalinen , and Teppo Numminen. While they're not overly physical, they can all skate and move the puck, triggering the club's aggressive, up-tempo offense.

The Islanders' blue line is about as deep as a VH1 reality show. Tom Poti, Sean Hill, Marc- Andre Bergeron, Chris Campoli, Brendan Witt, and Deron Quint? Usually you don't see six things that awful without a Miller Light label.

In net, Ryan Miller is an elite young netminder who gained invaluable experience during last year's run to the conference finals. Wade Dubielewicz may be the feel-good story of the moment, but Miller is a legit top ten netminder.

Oddly enough, the Islanders actually had slightly better special teams than Buffalo. But it really won't matter.

Key Matchup: No one on the Islanders is good enough to warrant a matchup concern. And there's really nothing the Islanders can do to slow down the Buffalo offense. That responsibility will fall solely on the sturdy shoulders of Dubielewicz.

Players to Watch: Vanek had the quietest 43-goal, plus-47 season in NHL history. He's Buffalo's game-breaker. But if you want clutch, look no further than Chris Drury. While his overall playoff numbers of 35 goals and 68 points in 98 games are hardly overwhelming, he scores big goals at key moments, as witnessed by his 12 career game-winners.

Prediction: The Islanders are good along the wall, determined in front of the net, and... oh wait, I'm sorry, I was thinking of the New York Ice Girls. Has the series started yet? Because it's already over.

Buffalo in four.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (7) vs NEW JERSEY DEVILS (2)

I hate the New Jersey Devils. They embody everything wrong with the post-expansion, pre- lockout NHL. Their passive approach to hockey, in which they merely try not to lose instead of win, sickens me to no end. The NHL, and the world in general, would be a much better place if the Devils ceased to exist. They've humiliated their families, embarrassed the sport, and blemished the planet long enough. I refuse to write about them one moment longer.

Turning to Tampa Bay, I can sum up the Lightning in one word: goaltending. They don't have it. But don't kid yourself, Marc Denis and Johan Holmqvist are great goalies. They only suck when compared to other professional goaltenders.

Key Matchup: The only chance Tampa has is if Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis go buckwild. That seems unlikely against a team with Martin Brodeur, John Madden, and Jay Pandolfo. The Devils are as good as they come at eliminating one line. And the Bolts are a one- line team. Look for Madden, Pandolfo, and Sergei Brylin to be all over Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Vaclav Prospal.

Players to Watch: Brad Richards had a disappointing regular season, managing a mere 70 points and a pitiful minus-19. John Tortorella told anyone who'd listen that Richards was actually playing quite well and was earning his hefty paycheck. Now's the time for Richards to reward his coach's loyalty. Tampa desperately needs offense beyond Lecavalier and St. Louis. And we all know Richards is capable of performing in the postseason.

Prediction: New Jersey is awful. The Devils are a complete sham and a mockery of our grand sport. They're a shamockery, if you will. But they have a goaltender. That'll be enough to beat the Lightning.

New Jersey in seven.

NEW YORK RANGERS (6) vs ATLANTA THRASHERS (3)

Few teams were hotter down the stretch than the New York Rangers, who were 12-3-4 after March 1. Incredibly, the man most responsible for the late-season renaissance was Sean Avery. The pesky punk had eight goals and 20 points in his 29 games as a Ranger, providing the skilled but soft Blueshirts with the sort of aggressive, physical presence they lacked on their top two lines. Say what you will about Avery, but he brings it every night. He's not going to back down from anyone. His heart's almost as big as his mouth. Almost.

Avery's done most of his damage on a line with Brendan Shanahan and Martin Straka. That's taken some of the scoring burden away from Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander, who've lately been skating with Brad Isbister. Fear the Isbister. New York's third line isn't much to write home about, but I love their checking unit of Blair Betts, Jed Ortmeyer, and Ryan Hollweg. And I love them because I don't have to play against them.

Atlanta went into the postseason on a bit of a high note, ending 4-1-0 in its last five. Better yet, Ilya Kovalchuk finished with a four-game goal-scoring streak, giving him nine in his last 16 games and 42 for the season, the second-highest total of his career. He'll probably line up with Keith Tkachuk in the middle and Jon Sim on the right side. Atlanta's top line will feature the great Marian Hossa, who led the Thrashers with 43 goals and 100 points, with Eric Belanger in the middle and Slava Kozlov on the left. Bobby Holik, Pascal Dupuis, and Brad Larsen will get most of the checking assignments. Expect to see Holik against Jagr whenever possible. Holik will relish the opportunity to try and intimidate his fellow countryman. Proving yet again that intimidating Jagr is so easy, a caveman can do it.

Neither of these clubs has much on the back line. The Thrashers actually got better when they added Alexei Zhitnik, so that should give you some idea about their defense. And when Paul Mara landed in New York, people thought he was Bobby Orr. There won't be any Norris Trophy candidates on display in this one.

Ah, but there will be two future Vezina nominees. I've been hyping Kari Lehtonen ever since we brought LCS back to life, so it'll be nice watching him in his first postseason appearance. He's good enough to win this thing on his own. Then again, so's Henrik Lundqvist. Since January 1, good ol' Henrik is 22-11-6 with a 1.89 goals-against average, a .929 save percentage, and four shutouts.

Key Matchup: These clubs are fairly even. I think it's gonna come down to goaltending. It's definitely a marquee matchup. Lundqvist and Lehtonen are two of LCS Hockey's Big Five in net, along with Roberto Luongo, Miikka Kiprusoff, and Marc-Andre Fleury. It should be special. And Lundqvist will be on a mission to erase the memories of last year's first-round implosion against New Jersey.

Players to Watch: I'd have to go with Brendan Shanahan for the Rangers. He had just three goals in 22 games over his final three postseasons in Detroit. He's the guy the Rangers will be counting on to lead them through tough times, but it's difficult to lead unless you're putting the puck in the net.

Atlanta needs a big effort from Ilya Kovalchuk. I have no doubt Hossa will show up, but Kovalchuk doesn't exactly inspire confidence. And it won't be enough to score three goals in Game One and then take the next few games off. He's gotta do it each and every night. I'll believe it when I see it.

Prediction: With both clubs so evenly matched, this one could come down to special teams. The Rangers have the 8th-ranked power play (18.5%) and the 12th-best penalty kill (83.8%). Atlanta is near the bottom in both categories, sporting the 26th power play (79.8%) and the 23rd penalty kill (16.5%).

New York in six.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (5) vs OTTAWA SENATORS (4)

This will be the best series of the opening round. Whichever team survives could very well represent the East in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Let me say this about Ottawa... I don't like 'em. I think they're a bunch of lily-livered, candyass crybabies. Bryan Murray is a pompous, lisping ignoramus, entirely incapable of winning anything beyond the contempt of his peers. Daniel Alfredsson is the worst captain in the NHL. He's quite the leader in theory, but when the season's on the line, he lets Jason Pominville skate around him without the slightest hint of resistence. Jason Spezza is one of the best playmakers in hockey, but his overall disdain for the puck and willingness to attempt high-risk maneuvers are an affront to intelligent hockey players everywhere. I'm still not sure how I feel about Ray Emery. I suspect he likes himself a bit too much. And don't even get me started on Dean McAmmond. Aw, I kid. I didn't even know he was still in the league.

In contrast, the Penguins are the coolest team in the NHL. But they're not really the most talented bunch. Pittsburgh's overall skill level is greatly exaggerated. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are the only two players capable of creating their own offense. Jordan Staal is a freak, but he's still finding his way five-on-five. If Crosby and Malkin aren't creating, no one else is. This Pittsburgh squad is much closer to a grinding, checking team than they are to the star- studded Penguin clubs of the early 1990s.

However, like those glorious Cup winners, this flock of arctic birds can win 2-1 or 6-5. They're really quite underestimated defensively, employing Michel Therrien's regimented system to stymy and confuse the uninitiated. And when things do break down, Marc-Andre Fleury is the best big save goaltender in hockey, making at least one or two stops each night that no other mortal man could hope to accomplish.

Breaking it down by position, I'd give the Penguins the edge in net. Emery is a good, solid NHL netminder, but Fleury is simply a different level. He's got a higher ceiling than the Sistine Chapel. Granted, he's only 22 and completely unproven in the postseason, but so was Cam Ward last year. Emery, on the other hand, has been playoff tested. And he failed.

I think the Penguins will be able to get into Emery's head. In fact, I think they already have. Martin Gerber should stay loose. The cool thing about Fleury is he could give up six one night and then stand on his head the next. The kid's already been through so much in his young career, I have no doubt he'll bounce back from a shelling. Emery? Not so much.

And there are going to be some goals scored in this one. Ottawa's top line of Spezza, Alfredsson, and Dany Heatley could be the best in the league. Chris Kelly, Antoine Vermette, and Chris Neil will likely comprise the second line, while Mike Fisher, Mike Comrie and Peter Schaefer will go head-to-head with Crosby. The Senators' fourth line is a glaring weakness, featuring the likes of McAmmond, Oleg Saprykin, and swingman Christoph Schubert.

There's no point in even discussing Pittsburgh's lines. Therrien rarely sticks with one combination for an entire period, let alone a game. They'd be best served to have Crosby and Malkin on different lines simply to keep one of them away from Fisher. What makes Pittsburgh so dangerous, though, is their impressive array of gritty, gutty role players. Gary Roberts, Colby Armstrong, Maxime Talbot, Jarkko Ruutu, Ronald Petrovicky, and Georges Laraque are all punishing hitters. Well, Talbot punishes more with his mouth, but he's the hardest working man this side of James Brown. One through 12, Pittsburgh's deeper, stronger, and tougher than the Sens.

That depth doesn't stretch to the blue line. Pittsburgh's top four of Sergei Gonchar, Mark Eaton, Ryan Whitney, and Brooks Orpik is brilliant. They're matchmaking perfection, pairing slick puck movers with defensive stalwarts. And Orpik can crack. Keep your head up. Unfortunately, Josef Melichar and Rob Scuderi are the five and six guys. They wouldn't even be in the lineup for any other playoff team. Alain Nasreddine has added some veteran stability when called upon, but he's still Alain Nasreddine.

Bryan Murray

Ottawa's blue line is second to only Buffalo's in the Eastern Conference. Wade Redden, Andrej Meszaros, Chris Phillips, and Anton Volchenkov are rock solid, and Tom Preissing and Joe Corvo can move the biscuit. Volchenkov is Ottawa's answer to Orpik. But I'm not sure if the other guys want any part of Pittsburgh's forecheck.

It's also worth mentioning that these teams hate each other. Their games have been real chippy. Ruutu has tormented Spezza. Armstrong ran Emery. Crosby and Fisher have exchanged pleasantries. Even Bryan Murray's been yapping at Sid and Therrien. Why, he got so mad, he even threw Kitty Carryall at them.

Key Matchup: Mike Fisher's line, along with Phillips and Volchenkov on defense, will try and contain Crosby. They've done a good job in the past, limiting Sid the Kid to one goal and four points in their four meetings this season. Pittsburgh still won three of the games, though.

Players to Watch: While everyone will be spotlighting Crosby, Malkin could be the difference. Geno ran headfirst into the rookie wall over the second half of the season, managing just nine goals in his final 37 games. He was obviously fatigued, failing to protect the puck with his previous zeal and making more turnovers than Aunt Bea for the Mayberry town fair. But the playoffs are a fresh start. Malkin is pretty much this team's Jaromir Jagr. And Penguin fans remember what Jagr did in his first postseason. Get the highlight reels ready.

Prediction: Ottawa should win this series. The Sens have an enormous advantage in playoff experience, they're a superior faceoff team (50.3% to 47.0%), and they've also got the personnel capable of containing Crosby. And it typically takes young, talented teams a few tries before finding postseason success. Wayne Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers lost in the first round their first time in the playoffs. They didn't win the Cup until their fifth try. These things usually happen in stages.

So why do I get the feeling the Penguins are going to win? Well, it could be because the Senators are losers. It's who they are, it's what they do. I think they'll find a way to fold. And if they don't, Gary Roberts will fold them. He owns the Senators. Not getting Roberts could come back to haunt the Senators in a big way.

The smart money would be on Ottawa. But no one ever accused me of being smart.

Pittsburgh in six.

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